ESTOFEX LEVEL 1 WARNING FOR FINLAND 17.05.2012  
  Baltic States and Finland

The warm air advection regime over eastern Europe will nose into the Baltic Sea region during the period. A strong (15 m/s at 850 hPa) southerly low-level jet will affect the region at Thursday and will slowly propagate eastward. Latest soundings indicate steep lapse rates that will spread into Finland during the period. Additionally, moisture pooling along the warm front will lead to about 10 g/kg 0-1 km mixing ratio. Latest models suggest MLCAPE in the order of 500 J/kg that increases further south.

Through-out the period, showers and thunderstorms are likely in the warm air advection regime due to QG forcing that will increase as the southerly trough will approach. These storms may be embedded in large-scale precipitation especially in the western parts near the front, where low-level buoyancy is rather limited. Further east, daytime heating may result in surface-based storms. These storms will have a potential to develop into supercells capable of producing tornadoes as the 0-1 km bulk shear will likely exceed 10 m/s in the afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, locally large hail and severe wind gusts are not ruled out. The tornado potential is expected to decrease in the late evening and night hours due to the low-level stabilization.