Thunderstorms represent one of the most intriguing and often-dangerous forms of
weather we may encounter.

They come in all shapes and sizes with some cells only a few miles in diameter
and some clusters of storms, known as mesoscale convective complexes,
that span hundreds of miles.

They are the beauty and majesty of mother natures fury.


Luumäki 13.5.2010

 

 

   

 

11.08.2017

The gfs forecast for tomorrow is unbelivelbe. 0-3 km SREH
(Storm Relative Helicity) is 300 m^2/s^2.

SB CAPE over baltics over 3000 J/kg

The combination of strong CAPE and strong 0-3 km shear and the convergence creates
favorable preconditions for a northward progressing mcs to develop .

Initially a few supercells with large to very large hail will be possible too.

A tornado or two are not ruled out either, since 10-20 m/s of 0-1 km shear
should be supportive of strong low-level rotation.

The anticipated rapid evolution to bow-echo mode reduces the risk somewhat.

Also the sea water is colder then normal & could effect the whole system.
But we will see what will happen.

There is potential for this to become 'one hell of a storm,'

Stay safe......................

Here are the latest gfs map. GFS SB CAPE FOR 12.08.2017 18 UTC

 

 

03.08.2017

Haven't posted anything for a long time. Has been quite calm on the weather front.
The Meteorological Institute has announced that July in Finland was
considerably colder than usual.

Yesterday i filmed my first t-storm this summer.
No mcs but it still had some nice structure.

Here is a radar image of that storm :

 

Here are some photos, will release a video later.


Estofex have issued the first level 1 warning for Southern parts of Finland for tomorrow.

Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 04 Aug 2017 06:00 to Sat 05 Aug 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 03 Aug 2017 15:31

S-Finland, the CNTRL-Baltic .

Placed beneath a broad pool with rather cold mid-levels and with ongoing influx of moist
air from the SE,


a setup exists for scattered diurnal driven thunderstorms.
Weak shear precludes organized convection, but pulsating storms may grow into
numerous slow moving clusters.
Effective PWs in excess of 20 mm and slow storm motion indicate a risk of numerous heavy rainfall
events in the area of interest. Hail near severe limit can't be ruled out with an isolated more
intense updraft.

In addition, low LCLs and LLCAPE in excess of 100 J/kg

This may result in a few funnel/short-lived tornado events.
The risk decays onshore after sunset..

 

 

11.05.2017

 

Have not posted anything for a long time,

Latest news:

Updated forecast calls for Colder than normal Spring.

The last time it was this cold at the same time of year was in 1999, while Lapland last
saw such chilly springtime temperatures in 1995.

"Such cold period at this time of year occur two to three times in a century,"

In southern and central Finland average highs should run from 05 to 15 degrees Celsius.
However this week, they will barely top five to 10 degrees.

Windy conditions expected in the next few days will add an unwelcome
chill factor and make conditions feel two to four degrees colder.

 

This week we had a lot of snow and hail storms, but to cold for any t-storm to form,

Here are a few pics from yesterday (cam samsung S5):

16.06.2016

Second level 1 warning this summer for Finland.

 

estofex foreast for 16/06/16

Russia, northeast Ukraine, east Belarus, southeast Finland,

Across this area, weak shear and flow and moderate CAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg are predicted.
The moist vertical profiles suggest a risk of localized heavy rainfall as well in this area.


Intense downburst recorded at St.petersburg around 16 a clock, same t-storm is slowly
moving towards southeast Finland,

https://www.facebook.com/severeweatherEU/videos/1826410124248747/

 

Latest radar image 18:20

 

 

 

10.06.2016

forecast for 10/06/2016

First level 1 warning issued for Finland this summer.

North Karelia NST index is over 10 .
NST = The non-supercell tornado parameter (NST)

more info about NST can be found here here :

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/help/help_nstp.html

 

ESTOFEX FOREAST VALID FRI 10 JUN 2016

CNTRL Finland to the White Sea ...

A SW-NE aligned convergence zone will serve as
focus for scattered thunderstorms during the 11-19 UTC time frame.
Forecast soundings show 15 m/s DLS with veered flow,
so we would not be surprised to see a few better organized thunderstorms as day progresses.
Low LCLs and 100-150 J/kg LLCAPE point to an isolated tornado risk.
Heavy rain may prompt flash flood problems on a local scale.
Thunderstorms decay until midnight.

 

 

Here is latest wrf radar for the morning (init 8:30 forecast for 10:00) no lightning detected yet but it is
early in the morning.

:

 

Here is the wrf forecast for today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

08.06.2016

Seasonally unusual storm hit western, northern parts of Finland "Wed 08-06-2016"

An unusually strong low-pressure front sweept over western and northern parts of Finland
between Wednesday and Thursday,

 

gfs forecast for today.


“The strongest winds occured in western parts of the country –
in the western parts of Northern Ostrobothnia and south-western parts of Lapland,”*

“Wind gusts locally reached speeds of 29 metres per second especially in the
area stretching from the Bothnian Bay to Ostrobothnia.

The low-pressure front is not expected to clear away until Thursday, according to the forecast.
Already this storm system has caused electric outage for over 4000 residents in that area.

For the area of North Karelia the NST index will be over 10 on friday 10/06/2016, !!

Here is one photo i took from the coldfront arriving in the morning hours. location masku/finland

here is one radar image from that morning.

No severe t-storms yet but have a feeling July & August will be more interesting

02.06.2016

Even if the forecast looked quite good only very week t-storm activity today.
Here are some photos from the only cell that passed near masku at 17:00 pm

 


01.06.2016

Forecast for 02/06/2016

GFS simulates 1000-3000 J/kg SB CAPE to western parts of Finland.

But the air masses are moving towards east this means any cell development will be more
inland and not in the coastal area. But the whole setup is still a bit unclear.

With a bit of luck possible the first chase day tomorrow. We will see.
rather marginal instability combined with weak vertical wind shear, limiting the severe weather threat.

 

GFS FORECAST INIT 01/06/2016 18:00 FORECAST FOR 02.06.2016 TORSTAI 18 UTC

 

 

24.05.2016

There has been some warm days and nice spring like weather so far this month,
But this is about to change, Warm and unstable air mass is present over most of Europe,
some of it will move over the Baltic Sea region & possible impact Western parts of Finland on Monday
30/05/2016, but this is still a bit unclear,

Looks like a good warm sector setup, with potential destabilization possible.

will keep you updated.

 

cape forecast for 30 MAY 2016 ( gfs init 24/05/16)

 

 

24.04.2015

Unstable weather prediceted for this week, We had some rain,-sleet, & -snow- ,
very cold weather in Western parts of Finland.

Once again the spring looks colder than normal, also belive June wil be quite cold .

 

 

This nice photogenic storm cell impacted Masku in the evening 24.04.16, It produced som hail,
will upload a video from this one later.

 

 

22.04.2016

First cape over 300 J/kg ,
This cell produced some hail but no lightning .

 


 

08.01.2016

 

Happy new year to anyone reading this .

The weather blog has not been updated during winter time.
We will be back May 2016.

( If any severe weather occur will of course post something)

During this time of the year spending most of my time with my astrophotography
project,

 

more info here:

 


 

08.09.2015

Almost no t-storm activity in western part of Finland this summer.
Activity for the rest of the country was also record low.

From a chasers point of view this Summer did not offer anything.

June was unusually but not exceptionally cold in the west.
Notably few thunderstorms occurred in May-June, due to the prevailing cold type of weather.

In a normal summer Finland gets an average of 3 to 5 estofex level 1 warnings
with CAPE values reaching 1,000–2,000 J/kg

Notable is that this summer there were no level 1 estofex warning issued for Finland at all.
That has never occurred during the seven years i have been chasing storms.

As no acces to vip foreca anymore had to search for some new tools:

Found some nice one.

 

1.Ursa rain/lightning radar with 5 min interval

2.Finwrf II (service is back & better then before)

3.Could forecast for scandinavia (handy tool when doing astrophotography)

4.GFS FORECAST puupa.org

26.06.2015

Posted some photos from the rotating low cloud formation filmed 23/06/15.

Still unclear for me what this was?

Click on image for more photos:

 

25.06.2015

((23/06/15 19:35 /masku,)) filmed a rotating lowering in the cloud base . Only had my S5 with me. The quality of the video is not so good.

Click on image for video:


Radar image from this event:

 

23.06.2015

The first day with moderate cape , forecast for 24/06/2015

Moderate deep-layer shear near 9-10 m/s and instability with values locally above 500 J/kg


This should favour some t-storm activity

 

17.06.2015

Have not posted anything for a long time.
No t-storm activity to talk about so far.

The beginning of summer has not been exceptionally cool, says the Finnish Meteorological Institute.

Strong winds have increased the perception of cool weather. The last time early summer has seen this much wind was in 2007.

Hot air masses frequently pass near the Finnish border, but have travelled to the Russian side at the last moment.

Low cape is charging up at sea today but dont belive we get more then a few showers.

 

Possible on Friday this week we will get some more activity

 

 

15.05.2015

Sun activity is going down and the hurricane season started very early this year.
Professor Mike Lockwood of Reading University told BBC News that declining solar activity has set the stage for global cooling.

Solar activity falling more rapidly than at any time in the last 10,000 years

And in Finland we are experiencing a very cold spring.
Looking at the forecast cant see it getting any warmer.

Belive we are in for a cold summer this year.

 

07.04.2015

For this time off the year an abnormally strong storm predicted.

Forecasted impact date 08/04/2015
will keep you updated - In the aftermath of this system the t-storm index is elevated

 

Latest gfs forecast :

 

 

24.03.2015

 

A severe solar storm struck Earth 17/03/2015, The storm intensified around 10 a.m. ET Tuesday to G4 status,
just one notch below the highest level solar storm, according to the NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center.


The geomagnetic storm is the strongest so far of the current solar cycle, which happens every 11 years or so.

Here is some photos from that evening :

 


Timelapse video can be found here;

 

06.02.2015

 

90 % chance of very strong storm in Northern Baltic, the Sea of Åland and the Sea of Archipelago from the night between Saturday and Sunday.

On Saturday noon, wind gusts can exceed 29 metres per second in southern part of the country, Latest gfs here:

30.12.2014

A very strong low pressure system (±960 mb, comparable to a class 3 hurricane) is due to impact scandinavia, forecasted impact date: friday 02/01/2015
The path of this sytstem is still a bit unclear, Still a few days to go, Will keep you updated,

11.12.2014

The following weeks very strong storm systems rolling in. After that possible colder air on the
move.

Winds reached storm-strength on Wednesday in the north of the Baltic Sea, with gusts of 27.2 metres per second
recorded in the northern Baltic and 20 metres per second off Pori.
Western regions of Finland felt the worst of the storm during Wednesday evening,
with power cuts caused by the weather system's landfall.

conditions will ease off in the West of the country by Thursday morning,
while the storm front moves towards the North and East.

 

The storm front moving towards the east may be followed by a new front,
moving up from over the North Sea. The direction taken by the storm
may yet change.

 

HERE IS THE GFS FOR 13/12/2014

25.11.2014

One should never have any expectations about the weather because it will be an exercise in frustration.
Looks like we are in for a warm winter again.

This also means that after x-mas we should expect some severe storms to make landfall.

In previous years the pattern has been like this.

Warm nov-dec month give us more severe weather later on.

 

26.09.2014

The first level 1 warning this month, a bit unclear what to expect.
Estofex :

 

A level 1 was issued for CNTRL Sweden, the CNTRL Baltic Sea and S-Finland mainly for severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado risk.

10.9.2014

Here is a video compilation
T-storms Summer 2014.

click on image for video

Here are some photos from summer 2014

(Did not have time to chase the big storms this season. )

European climate prediction center is expecting autumn as a whole to be warmer than normal
This could on the other hand cause more severe winter storms. But will post more regarding this later.

 

But for now T-storm season is over & time to continue
with project deep sky astro-photography '

07.08.2014

Have not posted anything for a long time. But will release a video soon.
here are a few shots from yesterdays stormchase:
07/08/2014 Location :Nousiainen.


07.07.2014

Finnaly the warm weather is back. The setup for today looking quite interesting:

SBCAPE FORECAST 07.07.2014 MAANANTAI 15 UTC

 

Finland is not in the level 1 area but still some isolated slow moving cells are possible in Western parts of Finland. The cape could go over 1000j/kg in this area.

Will keep you updated.

24.06.2014

An unusually cold midsummer week…. even exceptionally cold
On Tuesday,19 June 2014 Northern Finland recorded the lowest temperature for this date since 1962, while large swathes of the country awoke to a blanket of white.

With temperatures running 10C (18F) below average for this time of year,
parts of Lapland, northern Ostrobothnia and central Finland also saw snow.

The temperature fell to zero as far south as Virrat in Pirkanmaa.
The coldest June temperature in 50 years was recorded in Saanatunturi, Northern Finland,
when the mercury dropped to minus 6.2C (20.8F).

Looking at the forecast it is getting a little warmer in the middle of July.
But the forecast is a bit unclear.

T-storm activity has been very low due to the cold weather but some severe hail storms occured on sunday 22.06.14.
Will upload a video from this event later.

20.05.2014

The forecasted thunderstorms appeared on Monday, The first cell made landfall 13:00

The mercury was on Monday recorded to have surpassed the 30 degrees Celsius mark. The highest temperature of 30.8 degrees Celsius was recorded in Lappeenranta and Heinola.
The Met Office said the wind speed was up to 25 metres per second in Kauhajoki.

The thunderstorms brought hail in some places.
Level 2 warning was issued from Estofex:

Mesoscale Discussion #004 (valid 19/05/2014 13-18 UTC)

Will upload more photos & videos from this day as soon as possible,
The first storm system to make landfall was moving to the right from the bigger mcs system out at sea:



There where many speculations about if this was a supercell storm.
Photos later from that day confirms this. Large hail and massive wall cloud

 

Here is one photo from this cell, was quite far away. Will also upload a timelapse soon.

 

 

 

17.05.2014

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTED FOR 19.05.2013

Moderate deep-layer shear near 10-15 m/s and strong instability with values locally again above 2000 J/kg will support explosive convection. Threat for large to very large hail, damaging winds and locally excessive convective rainfall due to rather slow storm movement and high moisture content will exist.

Have not seen anything like this for a long time :) happy chasing.

 

29.04.2014

More unstable airmasses on the move.
By the end of May we should definitely have our first t-storm activity.

In the meantime please visit my new project:

http://www.jupiterandbeyond.tk/

site is still under construction.

16.04.2014

Things are starting to warmup slowly. Possible in the end of May the first days with high cape.

Seasonal forecasts predict warmer summer then normal.
Belive that in July-August we will have above-average severe t-storms acitivty.

But i will keep you updated.

 

20.02.2014

Forecast issued : Thu,20FEb 2014 Gfs 5-day forecast
A powerful storm system will impact Finland ,24feb2014
Usually we don't get so strong storms this time of the year.

Will keep you updated.

Here is the gfs :

 

11.02.2014

January was very unevenly split temperature-wise. After a very mild early part of the month the weather grew cold, even exceptionally cold. On 11 January, thermal winter finally began in the most southern part of Finland.

But it only lasted for a few weeks and now the abnormally warm weather is back.

 

19.12.2013

The storm dubbed “Seija” brought winds gusting to almost 30 m/s on land and one reading of 36.8 m/s at sea, just off the western coastal town of Rauma.

As of 7 AM on Friday 13th Dec, almost 200,000 households across the country were without electricity, as the storm knocked out power lines.

Fallen trees blocked several rail lines in western areas and disrupted ferry traffic. Train traffic was suspended Friday morning on six routes


12.12.2013

Level 1 storm warning in effect for western parts of finland.

impact date FRI 13 DEC 00Z


Scandinavia will be affected by a storm forming at the cyclonically sheared flank of a strong jet streak.
Given very dry air in the wake of the Scandinavian mountains, deep moist convection is not expected.

What To Expect/Storm Damage :

Fallen trees and limbs will knock down lines and poles and cause outages.
Outages may last a few seconds or a few days.

Belive this one will be as severe as "tapani myrsky" a few years ago.,



20.11.2013

Autumn storm Eino made landfall 17.11.13 in the early hours of Sunday morning
and wasted no time heading further inland. The storm left in its wake a trail
of downed power lines that left nearly 200,000 customers without electricity.
Estofex issued a level 1 warning for parts of Finland.
The forecast shows that next week possible the next big storm is on it,s way.

This photo was taken 10am near airisto/turku.

Here is the gfs from sat 16.11.2013:

11.09.2013

Season is over and the first autumn storm can be seen on the gfs for
next week.

During the peak of the season in June we had some well-organized storms.
July & August was a letdown even if the weather was quite warm

Also the amount of "Estofex level 1" warnings for Finland was very low this summer.

In August the moist air did not make it to Finland anymore.

9.8.2013 a mcs arrived from the baltics. The last mcs this season offered
very frequent lightning but it died out quickly after landfall.

(Example of typical severe weather pattern in Finland: )

Here are some videos & photos from this summer.

summer 2013 t-stom video timelapse
summer 2013 photos

12.08.2013

Have been to busy to update the news blog but will release a lot of photos and
videos from this summer soon. Believe the season is soon over.

Here is a photo from yesterday:
(( 11.8.2013 18:00 Location: Paattinen )) info about this day here

26.07.2013

Here is one photo from todays chase, location "Lieto" sbcape j/kg 1500
This storm caused some hail and severe flooding. Will upload some videos from this day soon.

02.07.2013

The weather is getting colder now. Never seen a gfs looking like this for the end of July. This should be the warmest period of the year but +5 celsius degrees is quite far from that.
Maybe this is just an error in the gfs. Lets hope so.... . .

 

28.06.2013

28,000 lightning strikes detected yesterday.

The Finnish Meteorological Institute named the storm "Elviira", and according to Yle Meteorologist Toni Hellinen it was the biggest
storm of its kind in Finland this century.Western and central parts of the country were hardest hit with busts of wind in some areas
measured at up to 33 metres per second. Even so, no serious storm damage was reported.

The former lightning strike record for a single 24-hour period was set in August 2010 during a storm that caused an estimated 24,000
cloud-to-ground hits. The all-time record in Finland is the 40,000 lightning strikes seen on June 29, 1988.

Here is a radar image from that day

20.06.2013

The forecast for next week looks promising.

Here is the gfs:
H

 

18.06.2013

Quite cold weather right now but belive that in a few weeks it will change.
Posted some photos and a short chase log from 06.06.2013:

 


10.06.2013

Uploaded some photos from a multicell storm filmed 04.06.2013.

 

04.06.2013

Estofex issues a level 1 for Finland today. The first one this season.
Heading in to that area in a few hours.

Here is the forecast

03.06.2013

Will post some videos and photos from last weekend soon.
Here is a taste of what to come:)

30.05.2013

A photo of a small cell that developed yesterday evening.
When this photo was taken it was already offshore.



The setup for saturday is starting to look interesting.

29.05.2013

The forecast initialized at wed,29MAY201 indicate some instability
for the weekend.
Lets see what will happen:


 

22.05.2013

On Friday 17th May, filmed a short video and took some photos of a dying multicell system.

As forcasted the weekend was very active but Sunday was a let down.

On saturday a strong thunderstorm made landfall but unfortunately didn't have time to chase it. But Southern parts of Finland got some nice lightning show.

Here are the photos from Fridays chase that took me to Mynämäki:

(video can be found here)




16.05.2013

Now it looks like Sunday 19.05.2013 is the only day with any potential for
some t-storm activity. The forecast will still change. Only two days to go.

Here is Sundays gfs :

 

 

 

13.05.2013

A quite strong multicell system can be seen on radar this morning.
But will it make landfall? Gfs shows only som low cape j/kg values for today..

The forecast for next weekend has been downgraded but still looking good.
Belive there is some good potential for some severe t-storms.

10.05.2013 has been the most active day so far. And for many it was the start of season 2013

http://www.flcenter.net/forum/20/1636

 

My expectations are high for next week, here are the gfs issued today.

 


10.05.2013

Here is a radar image from yesterday. Showing some activity out at sea.
A few strikes here and there but nothing special.

GFS Medium Range Forecasts show that something big is on its way.


The cape chart below for the end of next week shows this set-up starting to take shape, and the GFS computer model is highlighting the same possibility.
On the ECM chart the warm plume heading towards Finland.

This is the classical setup where warm moist air rises from Russia.
Have seen the same before but last summer there where no setup like this.

It’s too early to call, but needs watching closely during the coming days
because there’s the potential for some nasty weather to develop .

Starting 17.05.2013 =>>>Possible +26 celsius degrees and cape j/kg over 1000.


 

 

08.05.2013

The forecast for thursday is still a bit unlcear.
There is potential for some weak t-storm activity.

Already this morning we had some stronger then normal raincells.
Maybe an indication of things to come.

Here is a photo taken with my mobile this morning.

 

 

 

 

06.05.2013

Some warm air pushing up towards scandinavia and with it some low sbcape possible 100-500 J/Kg

Still the colder then normal sea water should prevent anything big from happening.

 

Here is the cape forecast:

 

03.05.2013

Very cold weather and feels like the summer is late.

Estofex has been down for some weeks now.
Can only hope that this do not continue thru the summer..

No other source in Europe provide
such accurate storm predictions.

 

uploded one new video :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OT5q1pXAHiM&feature=youtu.be

 

 

18.04.2013

The forecast is finally beginning to show some warmer weather.
Looks like the begining of next month is when it is starting to happen.

 

02.04.2013

The easter weekend is over and the first signs of spring are here. But still colder than normal conditions persist.

The first signs of spring can also be seen on "wetterzentrale" gfs.

But still a long way to go.

Here is one photo taken Summer 2011 (cam sony hx1).
This storm was later classified as a supercell storm & produced a few funnel clouds. Lets hope summer 2013 will bring more storms like this. :)

The more storms you chase the more you crave the next chase.

   
   
     

((The news feed has been cleaned-up))

   
     
     
     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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  Kävijälaskuri    
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